China’s Pork Market Outlook: 2026 Forecast and Key Trends

China’s pork industry is expected to maintain steady production in 2026, alongside a continued decline in pork imports. The total pig herd is projected to remain around 709.5 million heads. While sow inventories during the first four months of 2025 surpassed those of the same period in 2024, weaker pork prices anticipated in the second half of 2025 may narrow producers’ margins, leading small-scale farmers to exit the market and discouraging sow replenishment. The average sow herd in 2025 is expected to stay largely unchanged from the previous year, setting the foundation for stable production in 2026.

Imports of breeding pigs are forecast to grow moderately year-over-year in 2026 after a lower base in 2025. Major pork producers continue investing in genetic enhancement to increase piglets weaned per sow annually, ensuring ongoing demand for high-quality breeding stock. As China’s domestic genetic systems continue to develop, imports will remain a key factor in herd improvement.

Pork output in 2026 is anticipated to remain steady at 57,150 thousand tons (CWE), supported by consistent piglet production, though limited by lighter carcass weights and stagnant consumer demand. Slaughter numbers are projected at 703,800 thousand heads.

Pork imports are expected to fall slightly to 1,300 thousand tons (CWE) due to weaker demand and strong domestic availability. Market participants remain cautious amid slower trade activity and high cold-storage inventories.