China Reshapes Its Pork Industry: Lower Imports, Higher Efficiency in 2026

By 2026, China’s pork sector is expected to show remarkable stability in production, alongside a gradual reduction in pork imports. National inventory is projected to reach 709.5 million head, ensuring a solid domestic supply.

Although sow numbers rose in early 2025 compared to the year before, weaker hog price expectations could put pressure on producers, discouraging sow retention and pushing smaller farmers out of the market. Still, average sow herds should remain stable, creating a steady foundation for 2026 production.

Large-scale producers continue to prioritize genetic improvement programs, fueling a moderate rebound in breeding pig imports after a weaker 2025. The objective remains clear: increase piglets per sow per year and strengthen overall efficiency, while China’s domestic genetic nucleus system is still under development.

Pork production is forecast at 57.15 million metric tons CWE, with consistent piglet supply balancing out lighter carcass weights and flat demand. Slaughter numbers are expected to reach 703.8 million head.

Meanwhile, pork imports are likely to decline to 1.3 million metric tons CWE, as weaker demand and high cold storage stocks reduce buying interest.

Overall, China’s pork sector is moving toward greater self-sufficiency, with genetics and efficiency shaping the industry’s next phase.